2026 Horror - Scope - or is it?

First published in Bridging Soup

Many of us were happy to see the back of 2025. The general paralysis and malaise that seeped through into every aspect of live was suffocating and exhausting. Many seasoned property professionals had not known a time as bad.

No better indicator of investors belief of impending doom was the increased volume of properties being offered at auction. The Essential Information Group reported, in December, a 15.1% increase year on year of lots being offered with a record number of lots offered in 2025 – a staggering 41,628. That there was a 70% success rate perhaps reflects the depressed values that auctioneers would accept to offer properties at auction.

One of those (very) seasoned property professionals whose opinion I value, Jonathan Vandermolen, wrote a brutally honest assessment of the property market, being the toughest he has ever seen in 40 years, for both developers and lenders alike.

Shades of 2008? No, it’s different. Then we had banks failing. The lender I was working with then was plunged into crisis not by our lending decisions, but those of the bank that led the syndicate that funded us – their failure saw the 3-year evergreen facility become repayable on demand – “and here’s the demand”. One of the more memorable meetings I’ve been in!!

Make no mistake, there are many lenders suffering from a nonperforming back book. I’ve been there. The Red book valuation you hung your hat on is now worthless. The reality of today’s market, especially the flat market in central London – knock 40% of what you believe the value is and you might, only might, stand a chance of selling. As a lender you are then underwater – what do you do? That funding line becomes clogged with non-performing loans, and the lender doesn’t have deep enough pockets to buy the loans out to keep the line “alive” and those high net worths are spooked every time they turn on the TV.

But.

In my experience, in any economic cycle, there comes a time when necessity does become the mother of invention – there is a general acceptance of where we are, the playing field, and the rules that govern it, however bad, are understood – and we move on.

My January has been busy. The businesses I work with have been planning the year ahead with a fair degree of positivity. They see opportunities. I see opportunity too.

Will it be easy. No.

But one thing I have promised myself this year – lets have a bit of fun along the way!